TheJobsMarket
Growing and Shrinking Occupations

Reading an Occupational Outlook Entry Properly

Each entry contains six numbers and one sentence that matters more than any of them.

Short answer

An occupational entry gives current employment, projected employment, numeric and percentage change, annual openings, a median wage and the entry requirements. Read them in a fixed order — size, then direction, then openings, then entry requirement, then wage distribution — and the entry answers a real question. Read the growth rate alone and it usually misleads.

Read the columns in this order

1. Current employment. How big is this occupation? A 40 per cent rise in a field of 20,000 people is a rounding error in a labor market of 155 million, and starting here stops you from being impressed by a percentage that means nothing.

2. Numeric and percentage change, together. Never one without the other. They answer different questions and they disagree constantly — nurse practitioners lead on percentage at 40.1 while home health aides add nearly six times as many actual jobs.

3. Annual openings. The number closest to your own experience of applying, and mostly replacement rather than growth. It frequently contradicts both of the change columns.

4. Entry requirements. Education, experience and training. This decides whether any of the above is available to you, which is why reading it fourth rather than first is only defensible if you read it at all.

5. The wage distribution — not the median alone. The gap between the tenth and ninetieth percentile inside one occupation is routinely larger than the gap between two different occupations.

The sentence that matters more than any number

The description of what the work actually involves day to day. People choose occupations from titles and leave them because of tasks, and the task description is the only part of an entry that predicts whether you will still be there in three years.

It is also the part that reads as filler and gets skipped. Read it twice and ask whether you would want to do that on a Tuesday in February, which is a more useful test than any projection in the table.

What is missing from every entry

Geography. National figures hide enormous local variation. Registered nurses have a national median of $97,550, $216,740 in San Jose and $76,540 in Wichita, and the entry shows you only the first.

Training capacity. Whether the places to qualify actually exist. A credential rationed by program capacity turns fast growth into competition for schooling, and nothing in the table says so.

What the work is like at a specific employer, which varies more within an occupation than between occupations.

Anything not yet classified. Emerging work appears only once it is large enough to be counted.

Comparing two entries beats reading one

The columns only mean something relative to each other. An occupation growing 8 per cent looks weak in isolation and respectable once you notice the all-occupations average, its openings figure and what it pays.

Put two candidate occupations side by side and the differences that matter surface immediately — usually the entry requirement and the wage spread, rarely the growth rate that prompted the comparison.

The three questions the entry actually answers

Is this field expanding or contracting? Roughly how much hiring happens in it each year? And what would I need in order to be considered?

Those are worth knowing and the entry answers them well. Anything beyond that — whether you would be good at it, whether it will exist in your city, what it pays somebody like you specifically — needs a different source, and the entry is not being evasive by omitting them.

The single most useful follow-up

Take the occupation you are interested in and look at its wage distribution in your own metropolitan area rather than nationally. That one step changes the answer more often than any other, and it is the step almost nobody takes because the national number is right there and feels sufficient.

What the entry is not trying to do

It is a description of an occupation, not advice about you. It has no opinion on whether the work suits you, whether the growth is reachable from where you are standing, or whether the wage is enough for your life.

People read these pages hoping for a verdict and come away with a table, then feel the source was unhelpful. It was doing its job; the verdict was never on offer, and no dataset produces one.

Two entries that look identical and are not

Consider two occupations both growing around 15 per cent with medians near $60,000. One requires a bachelor’s degree and five years of related experience; the other requires a high school diploma and long-term on-the-job training.

On the columns most people read, those are the same occupation. In practice one is available to you next month and the other in seven years, and the entry says so plainly in a column that gets skipped. That single difference outweighs everything the growth rate is telling you.

Common questions

What order should I read an entry in?

Size, then numeric and percentage change together, then annual openings, then entry requirements, then the wage distribution.

Why not start with the growth rate?

Because a large percentage on a small base is a rounding error in the labor market. Size gives the growth figure its meaning.

Which number is closest to my experience?

Annual openings, since that is roughly the volume of hiring you would encounter, and it is mostly replacement rather than growth.

Why look at the whole wage distribution?

Because the spread between the tenth and ninetieth percentile shows the range of outcomes inside the same job title, which the median hides.

What is missing from every entry?

Geography, whether training places exist, what a specific employer is like, and any occupation that does not exist yet.

What order should I read an occupation entry in?

Size, then numeric and percentage change together, then annual openings, then entry requirements, then the whole wage distribution.

What is missing from every entry?

Geography, whether training places exist, what a specific employer is like, and any occupation not yet large enough to be classified.

What single follow-up helps most?

Look up the wage distribution for that occupation in your own metro rather than nationally. Nurses run $216,740 in San Jose against $76,540 in Wichita on a $97,550 national median.

CS

Charles Slocs

Data and research

Charles Slocs builds the data side of this site — pulling the federal wage and employment series, matching job titles to occupation codes, and working out what the numbers do and do not support. He writes the pages that are mostly a question about evidence: what a survey measured, how wide the spread really is, and which published figure is out of date.

All articles by Charles Slocs →