The official openings measure requires a position that exists, is unfilled, could start within thirty days, and is being actively recruited for. Many live postings meet none of those tests — kept up to build pipelines, satisfy internal posting policies, test the market, or simply never taken down. Treating job board volume as a measure of demand overstates it.
What officially counts as an opening
A position that exists, is unfilled, could start within thirty days, and is being actively recruited for. All four conditions, which is why the official count sits far below the number of listings you can see on any given day.
A posting is an advertisement. An opening is an intention to hire. The gap between those two things is the whole subject, and it has widened.
Why postings persist without a job behind them
Pipeline building. Collecting applicants for roles that may open later. The applications are useful to the employer whether or not the role exists.
Internal posting requirements. Many organizations must advertise externally even when an internal candidate is already chosen. That posting is completely genuine and completely unavailable.
Neglect. A filled role whose listing was never removed. Taking it down requires somebody to remember; leaving it up costs nothing.
Aggregation. One role syndicated across several boards appears several times to anyone counting, which inflates the apparent volume without inflating the opportunity.
Frozen requisitions. A role that was approved, posted, and then caught by a hiring freeze. Nobody takes it down because it may unfreeze.
How to tell before you invest an hour
Check the original posting date on the employer’s own careers page rather than the job board, because boards frequently refresh dates and a role that looks four days old can be four months old.
Watch for the same role reposted repeatedly over months. Notice requirements that read as a wish list rather than a job — that often means nobody has decided what the role is.
And ask the recruiter two questions directly: is the position approved and funded, and when do you expect it to start? A real opening has answers to both. Hesitation on the first one is the answer.
Why this matters beyond wasted applications
It distorts your read on the entire market. Somebody applying into a board full of stale listings concludes there is plenty of demand and that the problem must be them.
That conclusion is corrosive and frequently wrong. The official openings measure exists precisely because posting counts are unreliable, and the gap between the two is largest when employers are cautious — which is exactly when the person searching most needs an accurate picture.
Most postings are still real
The majority are genuine, and the ones that are not cluster in particular employers, particular sectors and particular seasons. This is not a reason to stop applying.
It is a reason to treat posting volume as a weak proxy for demand, and to spend your effort where the signals are good rather than spreading it evenly across everything that appears in a search result.
The practical filter
Prioritize roles posted within the last fortnight on the employer’s own site. Treat anything reposted for months as a pipeline unless a recruiter tells you otherwise. And weight a role with a named hiring manager and a specific team above one advertised by a generic account.
Then ask the two questions early rather than after three rounds. Recruiters answer them routinely and nobody thinks worse of you for asking — it reads as somebody managing their time, which is what it is.
The one that is hardest to spot
A role that is genuinely open, genuinely funded, and already earmarked for somebody. The posting is real by every test above and you are still not going to get it.
There is no reliable way to detect this from outside, and it is common in organizations with internal-posting rules. The tell, when there is one, is a process that moves unusually fast to a single-round interview and then goes quiet — the box has been ticked.
Nothing to be done about it except not to read it as a verdict on you. Some proportion of every search is spent on races that were already decided.
What to track about your own applications
Keep a simple record: date applied, whether the posting was on the employer’s own site, how long it had been live, and what happened. After thirty applications you will have your own data on which sources convert.
Most people discover the same thing, which is that a small number of well-chosen applications to fresh, employer-site postings outperform a large number scattered across aggregators. That is worth knowing from your own numbers rather than taking anybody’s word for it.
Common questions
What officially counts as an opening?
A position that exists, is unfilled, could start within thirty days and is being actively recruited for.
Why do postings stay up when the role is filled?
Because removing them costs effort and leaving them costs nothing. Pipeline building and internal posting policies also keep roles live.
How can I tell before applying?
Check the original date on the employer's own careers page, watch for repeated reposting, and ask whether the role is approved and funded.
Are most postings fake?
No. The majority are real, and the unreal ones cluster in particular employers and seasons. Posting volume is simply a weak proxy for demand.
Why does this distort my view of the market?
Because a board full of stale postings looks like plenty of demand, which makes an unsuccessful search feel like a personal failure.
What officially counts as a job opening?
A position that exists, is unfilled, could start within thirty days and is being actively recruited for. A posting alone meets none of those tests.
Why do postings stay up after a role is filled?
Removing them requires somebody to remember and leaving them costs nothing. Pipeline building, internal posting rules and frozen requisitions keep others live.
What two questions should I ask a recruiter?
Is the position approved and funded, and when do you expect it to start. A real opening has answers to both.